The birthrate in Sweden for 2024 has decreased to 11,609 births per 1,000 inhabitants, a decrease of 1.06% compared to 2023. The lowest birthrates are found in Puerto Rico (6.712), South Korea (6.743), and Greece (6.870). Our neighboring country, Finland, has the lowest birthrate among the Nordic countries, with 8.562 births per 1,000 inhabitants. Sweden has consistently experienced a decline in birthrate since 1950, when the birthrate was 15,931 per 1,000 inhabitants. The trend was positive starting in 1999, but broke in 2014 and has continued to decline since then. [1]
Statistics from the Swedish Statistics Office (SCB)
According to the SCB, the birthrate in relation to the population has never been lower than in 2023, and the number of newborns in 2023 was the lowest in 20 years. However, in total the population increased by 0.3% to 10,551,700 registered inhabitants. Last year, the Swedish Tax Agency made an effort to deregister several thousand incorrectly registered individuals in Sweden, which contributed to the reduced increase in registered inhabitants. According to the OECD, a birthrate of 2.1 children per woman is required to ensure a stable population [2]. In Sweden in 2023, 1.52 children were born per woman.
What does the decline in birthrate mean for Sweden?
The decline in birthrate has both social and economic consequences. An aging population that requires care must be supported by taxes generated by the younger working population, so if the younger population decreases, it may become difficult to cover the costs. According to the Swedish Parlament's budget office, lower birthrates have consequences from a national economic perspective, including lower economic growth, reduced demand for services and housing, and decreased consumption and savings. [3]
Consequences of low birthrate on pensions
For example, in the USA, Ronald Lee, emeritus professor of economics at the University of California, says that people may have to expect to retire much later, when they are over 70 years old, i.e., to work longer. [4]. In many countries, the retirement age has been raised, such as in France, where it has been met with large demonstrations [5]. Even in Sweden, the retirement age is being raised, and the government has decided on a regulation that sets the target age for pensions in 2030 to 67 years. [6]
Are there measures to compensate for low birthrate?
Migration of labor can be a natural solution, but it is complicated by political and policy resistance to larger immigration. In South Korea, where the birthrate was 0.72 per woman in 2023, the government has invested billions of kronor in subsidies, childcare services, and infertility treatment to stimulate birthrate. [7]
A low birthrate in combination with an aging population and its consequences for the national economy and society as a whole is a difficult problem that will be discussed for many years to come.
