New figures from Statistics Sweden (SCB) show that unemployment rose and employment fell in July compared to the same month last year.
According to Susanne Spector, much suggests that unemployment will continue to remain at a high level in the coming months.
The Swedish labor market has weakened over time and the demand for labor is dampened. This means that unemployment is rising. It is harder to get a job and much suggests that it will continue to be tough during the autumn, she says.
High employment rate
Christina Nyman, chief economist at Handelsbanken, also expects unemployment to be weak during the autumn, but to "move sideways".
We see no signs of either a clear recovery or a significant deterioration, she says.
She wants to emphasize, however, that the employment rate, i.e. the proportion of employed persons aged 15-74, still remains at a historically high level.
Unemployment is elevated and it is stagnant in terms of not creating new jobs right now. For those who are unemployed, it is of course extremely difficult, but one must not forget that there are also more people employed, she says.
The latest figures from SCB reinforce a trend that has been going on for a while, according to Susanne Spector.
Month by month, the statistics are volatile, but if you look through the noise, the labor market is still weakening, she says.
Want to see during the autumn
The statistics from SCB also show that the number of temporary employees is decreasing. According to Susanne Spector, this is often an early sign of a weaker labor market.
First, companies lay off their temporary staff and stop hiring new employees. We have seen this for a longer period. Now that the layoff levels have risen, they are also starting to consider laying off permanent staff, she says.
When the labor market turns, a first signal may be that the number of temporary employees increases again.
If it is to get better next year, one would like to see that the number of temporary employees goes in the right direction during the autumn, says Susanne Spector.
