Klimat and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari (L) highlights the scrappage premium as one of the government's climate measures.
However, the government overestimates the climate benefits, according to several remiss instancers.
In August, the government plans to introduce a scrappage premium of 10,000 kronor to those who scrap their oldest car and replace it with an electric car.
No major flaw with the premium as such, think the remiss instancers who have given their views on the government's proposal. However, it will not have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Not even the very modest effect that the government itself estimates will be achieved, they mean. The calculations are too optimistic.
The Transport Analysis Agency is critical of the government's assumption that the premium will be fully utilized – 50,000 scrapped cars – despite the Ministry of Climate and Enterprise's own impact analysis concluding that the scrappage premium will only lead to 10,000 more scrapped cars.
If we instead assume the smaller number, the reduction in emissions will be only 40,000 tons of carbon dioxide.
For comparison, the emissions increase this year due to the government's reduction obligation exemption at the turn of the year amounts to four million tons. And this year's reduction of fuel tax increases emissions by around 350,000 tons.
However, 40,000 tons is also overestimated, according to the Transport Analysis Agency, as well as the 2030 Secretariat, which works to achieve the climate goal of reduced emissions from transportation.
According to statistics from the Transport Agency, 800 people scrapped a car and bought or leased an electric car in 2023. It would be optimistic to assume that it would be as many as 10,000 who would do so if they got a scrappage premium, they think. This is also shown by experiences from Finland, which has introduced a similar premium.
The 2030 Secretariat estimates that the risk is high that the allocation of 500 million kronor will not be used, and notes in its remiss response that an optimally designed premium can only compensate for almost two percent of the emissions increases from the transportation sector that the government's previous policy has given rise to.
The scrappage premium is 10,000 kronor. Only private individuals can apply.
The requirement to apply for the premium is that the older car is replaced with a purchased or leased electric car, which can be used or new.
The scrapped car must be classified as Euro 4 or earlier emissions class.
The car being scrapped must not be deregistered, but must be in use.
The ordinance will come into force on August 15, 2024, and will expire at the end of 2025.
Source: Government memorandum
