If you want to bet on Trump's chances in the American presidential election, perhaps his majority-owned media company is the hottest right now.
The pattern is clear.
The assassination attempt on Trump in mid-summer was believed to further strengthen his chances of winning the election in early November. The stock soared and reached its latest peak of over 40 dollars on the American Nasdaq exchange.
Shortly thereafter, Joe Biden dropped out and Kamala Harris was appointed as the Democratic presidential candidate. The stock reaction was immediate. Harris went strong in the opinion polls, parallel to the collapse of the stock value of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). By the end of September, the stock was only worth 12-13 dollars. Then it turned again, this time in favor of Trump in the opinion polls, and consequently also on the stock exchange for Trump's media company, including his social media platform Truth Social.
Today, TMTG, which Trump is the majority owner of, costs 31 dollars, plus around 150 percent over the last four weeks. But from the peak at the end of March, it's about a 50 percent drop.
