The rocket attack on a football field in the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel, can in the worst-case scenario lead to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalating and getting out of control, according to Middle East expert Anders Persson.
Everything depends on how Israel chooses to respond to the attack, he says.
The rocket attack on the Golan Heights, which according to Israel claimed the lives of at least eleven children and young people, is described as the deadliest attack on Israeli targets since the current fighting with Hezbollah broke out along the country's northern border in October.
Many analysts have warned of a similar scenario, where children are affected.
It's an incredibly unstable situation, and it's exactly this type of event that can make the situation get out of control, even though neither side really wants it, says Anders Persson, associate professor of political science at Linnaeus University, to TT.
Hezbollah denies
Israel claims that the rockets were fired from Lebanon, and the Israeli military points to Hezbollah as responsible. However, Hezbollah denies being behind the attack.
The most likely scenario is that Hezbollah was behind the attack, but the rockets didn't have to be precision-guided. They could have been intended for another target, says Anders Persson.
He believes that Israel will respond in some way, unclear how. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently in the US but has interrupted his visit to return home.
I think there will be some kind of response within 24 to 48 hours. But I'm not sure it will be an escalating response. There are certain circumstances that can be seen as mitigating for Israel.
Belonged to minority
One such mitigating circumstance can, in Israel's eyes, be that the attack took place in a peripheral area and not in a major city like Tel Aviv.
Those who were killed belonged to a minority, most of them were Druze children. If the dead had been Israeli Jews in a major city, the response would have been harsher, says Anders Persson.
If Israel concludes that the rocket attack was an unfortunate misfire, the response may be to shell military targets near the Israeli border.
If Israel wants to escalate the conflict, they can respond by bombing deeper into Lebanon and targeting high-ranking leaders of Hezbollah or infrastructure.
