Finally, Ukraine has confirmed the attacks on Russian territory, which began on Tuesday, albeit in general terms. The delay had its reasons, according to Paasikivi.
It's about operational security and not wanting Russia to know what Ukraine's main focus and goals are, he says.
The advantages of the offensive are several for Ukraine, Paasikivi believes.
Instead of throwing in more troops into the meat grinder, primarily in Donbass, you achieve a range of different effects. (Russia's President) Putin, for example, is forced to come out and comment, and has shown himself to be remarkably smooth.
Ukraine is also showing the world that the country has the capability to carry out this type of larger operation on its own.
The USA has not been involved in the planning, at least it seems that way at present. The USA is, on the contrary, just as surprised as we are, says Paasikivi.
"New movement"
The attacks are reminiscent of the offensive Ukraine carried out to liberate the Kharkiv region in September and October 2022, according to Joakim Paasikivi, former lieutenant colonel.
What they have managed to achieve is surprise and a new movement in the war by advancing and taking fairly large areas. And they are also cutting off important Russian supply lines and railways.
The latter makes it more difficult for the Russian offensive in Kharkiv.
It remains to be seen how Russia can respond to the Ukrainian attacks by redeploying its resources and repositioning its forces.
It's very early yet. But this initially shows that Ukraine has a surprisingly good capability to carry out this type of operation. I and most other analysts probably thought it would continue to be about a static war of attrition.
No aces up the sleeve
It's highly likely that the recent events mean that a new front is created in the war.
Exactly like Ukraine liberated the Kharkiv region at the end of 2022. For Russia, there are no aces up the sleeve, other than nuclear weapons. Which is still unlikely that Russia will use.
Despite Russia having good reconnaissance capabilities in the form of drones and wiretapping – electronic warfare – its own capabilities have been overestimated, Paasikivi believes.
Perhaps one can also discern a Russian slowdown in Donbass where they previously had successes, he adds.
