If Donald Trump wins the autumn presidential election in the USA, uncertainty awaits regarding NATO and tariffs on Chinese goods.
At home, the Republican plans to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants.
The only way to live up to such a promise is to empty streets and homes of dark-skinned people and sort out their identity later. And, as Trump has said, it requires huge camps, says Bruce Stokes, political analyst and long-time opinion expert active at the think tank GMF (German Marshall Fund).
It would likely be devastating for (Spanish-speaking) Hispanics and for the USA's global reputation.
A setback?
Will Donald Trump win the autumn presidential election – despite prosecution and memories of a partly chaotic first term? The question is being asked increasingly often among political analysts around the world, in light of the Republican's popularity.
Sverige-actual Stokes, who has followed opinion trends in his home country and globally for decades, assesses the prospects of a Trump victory to around 50 percent. If it becomes Trump who takes the oath of office in January, Stokes predicts that primarily European leaders' confidence in the USA will take a hit.
When Trump took office last time, European confidence in the USA's leadership plummeted. In eight weeks, it was as low as after eight years with President George W Bush and the unpopular Iraq War, he says.
The concern in Europe is, among other things, about the defense alliance NATO. A Trump presidency would constitute a stark contrast to Democrat Joe Biden's pro-European and alliance-friendly White House, according to Stokes.
A second term with Trump would likely be more extreme and unpredictable than the first. But Stokes does not believe that the former president would make good on threats to withdraw the USA from NATO. He notes that there are other ways to express dissatisfaction if European countries do not spend as much on defense as Trump wants.
He can hold back contributions and create doubts about whether the USA would live up to Article 5 (the security guarantee that says an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all).
Fricton in trade
There is also nervousness about Donald Trump's recurring promises of tariffs on cars in general and Chinese goods in particular.
He has talked about tariffs of 60 percent but also of 10 or 20 percent. Regardless of which, it would create enormous disruptions in global trade and affect an export-dependent country like Sweden, says Stokes.
And his promise to quickly end the Ukraine war?
It suggests that he is willing to make a deal with Vladimir Putin, which would be unacceptable to many Europeans.
