The attempted murder of presidential candidate Donald Trump in the USA has increased his chances of winning the election, believe analysts.
However, no major effects on the market are to be expected. But a Trump victory could make the US trip "very expensive".
This probably strengthens Trump's chances of winning the election. But it was already leaning in that direction, so I think it will have moderate reactions on the market, says SEB's chief economist Jens Magnusson.
Maria Landeborn, senior strategist at Danske Bank, also says that the weekend's events will have short-term effects on the market.
But this is nothing that I think private savers should act on or pay attention to.
Risk of unrest on the market
If Trump were to win the election, there is a risk of unrest on the market, says Maria Landeborn. This is because the trade conflict between the USA and China could escalate.
The conflict has existed during Biden's time as well, he has continued to impose tariffs on Chinese goods.
But I think the tone will be much higher with Trump. And the risk is then that the conflict escalates and can cause unrest on the market.
The interest rates will also be affected by a Trump victory – because he wants to lower taxes if he becomes president.
I think the interest rates will go up a bit. Mainly the long-term interest rates because the USA's borrowing needs will probably increase, says Jens Magnusson.
They will get bigger deficits because Trump wants to lower taxes quite significantly.
Negative effect on the stock market
The dollar is expected to strengthen if Trump wins the election, something that will be negative for Swedish households, according to Maria Landeborn.
It will become very expensive to travel to the USA. But it will benefit the export industry.
How the stock market will be affected by a Trump victory, they have different opinions about. Jens Magnusson believes it will press the prices.
I guess the higher interest rates will have a greater negative effect than the positive effect of the tax cuts.
According to Maria Landeborn, it is not the presidential election that will determine how the stock market will go – but what the US central bank Fed will do.
Maybe you can see some effects depending on which presidential candidate is leading, but it depends most on how the US labor market is doing and what Fed does.
The long-term American bond yields have risen slightly and the dollar has strengthened since Friday's close.
