Ukrainian forces have "broken through at least two Russian defense lines" and captured over ten communities in the surprising ground offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk, according to the American think tank ISW (Institute for the Study of War).
It's a major propaganda victory when Ukraine can threaten Russia in Russia, when Russia has had territorial control over Ukrainian territory. It gives Ukraine a boost, says Jonas Kjellén, senior analyst at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI).
Access to fighter jets
One reason for the current offensive may be that Ukraine has received more military equipment, including the first F16 fighter jets in early August.
According to Kjellén, Russia must also redistribute its resources when the country's military actually wants to focus on other front lines.
In the region, a state of emergency has been declared due to "enemy groups", according to Governor Aleksey Smirnov. Jonas Kjellén believes that it makes it harder for Russia to keep the war away from the population:
Suddenly, it's not a (Russian) special operation far away and daily life continues, but now there is foreign power that has control over parts of Russia. The symbolic value cannot be underestimated.
Conscripts may be involved
A risk for Ukraine is that Russia involves more conscripts. When the war has been fought only in Ukraine, they have deliberately not involved them – which may now change.
It has probably been quite clever from Moscow's side, because then they haven't had the effect of Russian mothers and fathers trying to hide their young sons so they wouldn't be involved.
Ukraine's allied Western countries have simultaneously been silent about the operation.
There is a certain operational secrecy. No one knows how this will end, so you can be cautious for that reason.
