It looks scary for the Liberals, Christian Democrats, and Centre Party in the ongoing election.
If they fail to get into the European Parliament, it could have big consequences at home, not least for the party leaders.
All parties have been below or around the 4% threshold in several polls over the past few weeks. Even if it seems to have brightened up a bit in the past week.
It was the Greens who lost their seats in parliament in 1991, only to return in 1994. No parliamentary party has ever failed to get into the European Parliament.
According to Sofie Blombäck, it's talking, in combination with small parties usually doing better in the EU election, that they will still manage to make it.
If a party fails to get in, the immediate effect will be that they lose their access to the political arena in Europe, including administrative support and a natural platform for meeting European sister parties, according to Blombäck.
But it can also create problems at home, as there is a tendency among both voters, the media, and politicians to interpret the EU election as a larger opinion poll, says Blombäck.
Researchers call it "second-tier national elections", which means that it would be an indication of how things will go in the next parliamentary election.
According to her, there are a few things that usually prompt a party to make major changes.
