I know what kind of security arrangements that have been around all her performances in Stockholm. It's a contributing factor to why nothing has happened before, he says.
According to Brun, the planned deed follows a pattern with great probability:
What we see is a long-term conflict where the jihadist ideology is on a collision course with the Western world.
Lost important insight
It's mainly IS's local branch in Afghanistan, which recently took responsibility for the terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow, that is most active in Europe right now.
In connection with IS being pushed back in Iraq and Syria, the pressure on the Western world also eased. Now, much indicates that IS has regrouped. We've gone from a threat picture with lone wolves to having to handle more involved parties that are more organized.
At the same time, the maneuvering space has increased since we're putting so many resources into China and Ukraine.
In connection with the US withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021, the Western world also lost insight into the country, according to Brun.
It's hard to see what's happening on the ground. Several airlines have started flying regular flights to Afghanistan, which makes it easy to go there for training, and we know they're going there.
That young people are being radicalized online is no news.
There are several channels that one has control over. Tiktok is one of them, and demands have been made for them to take responsibility for the content that's being spread.
Europe's weak link
At the same time, Europe has had a widespread intelligence effort since before, but Germany is a weak link in the system, emphasizes Brun.
It can be tricky with personal surveillance, given their dark history.
Germany and Austria have become a bit of an epicenter for these groups. Germany has, just like Sweden, had a very generous refugee policy where it's easy to fly under the radar and not draw attention.
Everything taken together, Brun means that we're back to the time before the 9/11 attacks.
Around the turn of the millennium, the then CIA chief said that the system was blinking red. They suspected that something was going on, says Brun and continues.
We can do incredibly much more now, but that doesn't mean the system is a hundred percent. There's a risk that something slips through. That's what everyone is worried about right now.
