It was different last time. Then he was hit by a bullet in the ear and was actually injured, says Speel, who is a political scientist at Penn State Erie in Pennsylvania, referring to the assassination attempt in Butler in his home state in July.
After that, Donald Trump got a clear increase in opinion support.
What is now being investigated as a new assassination attempt on the presidential candidate occurred on Sunday when Trump played golf in Florida. The Secret Service, which is responsible for the protection, noticed a rifle barrel at a bush a few hundred meters in front of the former president. In connection with the discovery, shots were fired, the suspect fled in a car but was caught shortly after.
Believes in conspiracy
Robert Speel thinks that Donald Trump will refer to the incident when he campaigns, by claiming that "they", unclear who, are after him.
Many Trump supporters believe that there is a conspiracy to get Trump before the election. They will listen, their support will strengthen.
Dag Blanck, professor of North American Studies at Uppsala University, draws a similar conclusion.
It will strengthen Republicans' perception that there is a witch hunt against Donald Trump, that those behind it will stop at nothing and try to shoot him again, he says.
But when it comes to the USA's independent middle voters, those who have not yet decided how to vote in the presidential election on November 5, both Speel and Blanck believe that the suspected assassination attempt will have little effect.
Most people already have a clear opinion about Donald Trump. But the incident can affect marginally, which can be important in very tight situations, notes Blanck.
Robert Speel emphasizes that ordinary voters know that several assassination attempts against high-ranking individuals in the USA are thwarted annually.
It's not uncommon for mentally unstable individuals to go to the White House. Sometimes they manage to jump over the fence and end up in the news, he says.
Looks like a martyr
The opinion polls between Trump and the Democrats' Kamala Harris are very even. Harris leads in four and Trump in three of the seven crucial swing states. In all, the difference is less than 1.5 percentage points in their support.
Blanck believes that Trump will now try to take advantage of the assassination attempt in campaign speeches and claim that he is strong.
It strengthens the image of him as a martyr, as the only one who can save the country, he says.
Trump is a person for whom weakness is negative, he has, among other things, described prisoners of war as "losers". When he gets shot or gets covid, it's important for him to quickly come back. A "loser" is the worst you can be in Trump's world.
The Democrats' Kamala Harris currently has the support of 49 percent of Americans and the Republicans' Donald Trump has 47.3 percent, according to the political website Real Clear Politics' compilation of current measurements.
The USA's complicated electoral system means that the election on November 5 will be decided in a few so-called swing states. This is how the candidates' support looks in percent in these.
The number of electors in the swing states is in parentheses, to win the presidential election, support from at least 270 electors is required.
Pennsylvania (19): Harris: 47.8; Trump: 47.7
Georgia (16): Trump: 48.3; Harris: 48
North Carolina (16): Trump: 48.1; Harris: 48
Michigan (15): Harris: 48.3; Trump: 47.6
Arizona (11): Trump: 48.6; Harris: 47.3
Wisconsin (10): Harris: 49.2; Trump: 48
Nevada (6): Harris: 48.2; Trump: 47.3
The presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.
Source: Real Clear Politics
