The announcement that the American Fed is leaving the interest rate unchanged was generally expected among analysts. Fed chief Jerome Powell has previously stated that he wants to see clear evidence that the inflation rate is approaching the target of 2 percent before interest rate cuts can become relevant.
In a written statement after Wednesday's announcement, the Fed notes that "inflation has slowed down over the past year but is still somewhat elevated".
We are approaching the point where we can lower the interest rate, but we are not quite there yet, said Fed chief Jerome Powell at a press conference shortly after the interest rate announcement was made.
"Clear signals"
Elisabet Kopelman, US economist at SEB, believes that Powell now appears more open to an interest rate cut in September than he was earlier in the summer and spring.
I think he sent quite clear signals that the interest rate will be cut in September if the data continues to develop as the Fed believes, says Elisabet Kopelman at SEB.
The American central bank has now left the interest rate unchanged for almost a year. The last increase was made in July last year, by 0.25 percentage points.
In June, inflation was 2.5 percent according to the so-called PCE measure, which was a decrease from 2.6 percent in May. Despite the decrease, the figure was higher than investors had expected, according to a compilation from Bloomberg.
"More normal situation"
Much depends on whether inflation continues to fall, but also on how the labor market develops. At the press conference, Powell stated that the question of employment has become increasingly important, after a period of overheated labor market. As recently as on Wednesday, figures showed that significantly fewer jobs than expected were created in the US during July.
Now we are back in a more normal situation. It's not like the Fed wants to see a particularly much greater slowdown in the labor market right now. If you get a disappointment there, you're obviously in the starting blocks, says Elisabet Kopelman.
A more dovish Fed chief makes it easier for the Swedish Riksbank to cut its interest rate in the coming months, according to Elisabet Kopelman.
The Swedish Central Bank dared to take the lead with cuts, but there is a limit to how much you can deviate. So the fact that the Fed is now seen to be on the way with interest rate cuts makes it easier for the Swedish Central Bank to continue cutting, she says.
