The Migration Agency expects 10,000 people to seek asylum in Sweden in 2024 – a decrease of 2,000 compared to the agency's previous forecast from April.
The forecast is also being revised downwards for 2025 and 2026, due to the decreasing number of prescribed rejection cases and the fact that fewer people can therefore apply for asylum again.
"For 2027, we foresee a further decrease in the number of asylum seekers, as a result of the EU's migration and asylum pact, which is expected to have been implemented by then," says Magnus Frid, planning director at the Migration Agency, in a press release.
Up to June, around 5,000 people applied for asylum in Sweden, a decrease of 25 percent compared to the same period last year. Sweden is thus continuing to account for an increasingly smaller share of Europe's asylum seekers.
During the same period, approximately 5,500 Ukrainians applied for protection under the EU's mass flight directive, which is slightly more than expected. The Migration Agency is revising its forecast for the full year from 8,000 to 11,000.
Since the EU extended the mass flight directive by another year in June, until 4 March 2026, the agency expects approximately the same number next year.
The directive means that people from Ukraine are granted protection and temporary residence and work permits in the EU member states.
