Russia's escalated attacks on Ukraine are an attempt to convince the world that the country is on its way to winning the war in Ukraine.
It can also be interpreted as Russia trying to take as much land as possible before potential peace talks begin, says war researcher Ilmari Käihkö.
Intensive missile attacks on Ukrainian cities can be a way for Russia's President Vladimir Putin to give the Western world the impression that the Russian military is going to win the war, believes Ilmari Käihkö, who is a lecturer at the Defense University.
At the same time, we must remember that Putin is talking a lot about peace and peace talks right now, and the intensive bombing can also be interpreted as wanting to show on the battlefield that Ukraine must make concessions for there to be peace, he says.
Escalating before peace?
On Monday, over 40 missiles of various kinds were reported to have been fired in attacks on several cities around Ukraine, resulting in over 30 people killed.
Käihkö sees the increased attacks as an attempt by Russia to capture larger areas before potential peace talks, which may be influenced by the autumn's presidential election in the USA.
There are speculations that Trump will offer some kind of deal where the current front lines apply. Russia will then own a larger territory than they do today – if they manage to take more land now, he says.
Can be influenced by France
The outcome of the French election, where the left-wing alliance became the largest instead of the expected far-right party National Rally (RN), may come to influence the war in Ukraine in the long run, believes Käihkö.
If Le Pen's party had won, France's support for Ukraine might have decreased. However, there is still a concern within the EU that the left-wing alliance that won does not want to support Ukraine as much as Macron has done, he says.
