HUI Research, owned by the trade organization Svensk Handel, predicts that the effect of the interest rate cuts will be delayed. The retail forecast for 2024 is being revised downwards from a previous increase of 2.0 percent in current prices to 1.5 percent and from 1.0 to 0.5 percent in fixed prices.
For 2025, the forecasts remain unchanged, with an increase of 3.5 percent in current prices (2.0 percent in fixed prices).
"The recovery was expected to begin during the late spring and positively impact trade during the autumn, but has not yet occurred. Households have proven to be more cautious than expected, which is delaying the recovery," writes HUI in its forecast.
Above all, it is about the so-called occasional purchase trade having a tough time. The forecast for 2024 is being revised downwards for sports and leisure trade, while the forecast remains unchanged for the coming year. The situation is deemed even worse for electronics and appliance trade.
"A recovery is expected to begin during the autumn, but sales during Black Friday and Christmas shopping will be crucial for the year's outcome," writes HUI.
