The Stockholm stock exchange has performed strongly in the first half of 2024. Despite this, it cannot keep pace with the USA, where tech giants are lifting the market.
Excluding the seven giants, the USA does not actually stand out, says Maria Landeborn, private economist and senior strategist at Danske Bank.
Historically, the Stockholm stock exchange has averaged a return of between 8 and 10 per cent per year. With nearly half of 2024 gone, the broad OMXS-index is up 8 per cent.
Good prospects for the economy and lower interest rates are a major reason, according to Maria Landeborn.
Furthermore, there are good chances that the autumn will continue in the same vein.
If we have a continued good economy, inflation does not rise and central banks can continue to lower interest rates, we can also get a good finish to this stock market year. But much depends on market expectations of the economy.
Possible anxiety ahead of the French election
Several European stock exchanges, particularly in Paris, reacted negatively when French President Emmanuel Macron called for new elections after the far-right party National Rally became the largest party in the EU election.
As regards the stock exchange, the risk of anxiety is greater ahead of the election than afterwards, regardless of the outcome.
The market does not like uncertainty, such as when you do not know what policy will be driven. It may be that many wait with investments in French and European shares, but as soon as the election is decided, it usually clears up, says Maria Landeborn.
Seven companies driving the USA
Despite the strong development of the Swedish stock exchange in 2024, it cannot compete with the USA. The broad index S&P 500 has risen 15 per cent since the start of the year.
It is the large tech companies that have driven the success. Since the turn of the year, the so-called "Magnificent seven", led by the AI-hyped semiconductor giant Nvidia, have accounted for almost half of the entire return on the US stock market.
It is these giants that make the American market go so well. Nvidia has risen over 170 per cent just this year. But if you exclude these seven giants, the USA does not stand out compared to, for example, the Stockholm stock exchange.
It does, however, make the American market somewhat more vulnerable to changes or regulations within AI. But at the same time, there is no one who really wants to rock the boat.
AI is too important an issue for companies, countries, and governments. What could be a setback, however, is if the expected boost in productivity and profitability with the help of AI is delayed and it is difficult to point to concrete progress.
Stockholm (OMXSPI) +7.9 per cent
New York (S&P 500) +15.0 per cent
New York (Nasdaq Composite) +21.0 per cent
New York (Dow Jones) +3.0 per cent
Tokyo (Nikkei 225) +15.5 per cent
London (FTSE 100) +6.4 per cent
Paris (CAC 40) +1.1 per cent
Frankfurt (DAX) +8.4 per cent
Copenhagen (OMX) +22.5 per cent
Values as of 15:00 on Thursday, 20 June.
Seven companies in the technology sector go by the nickname "The magnificent seven".
In total, they make up nearly a third of the S&P 500 index of the 500 largest listed companies in the USA.
The companies are: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.
