Rouzbeh Parsi, program manager at the Foreign Policy Institute's Middle East and North Africa program, says that Iran chose between two bad alternatives. Either not doing anything or doing what they are doing now: attacking.
From the Israelis' perspective, this is a perfect trap. Either Iran reacts and then one can turn to the USA. Or they don't, and then Israel can continue to pick off Hezbollah's leaders, he says and continues:
What has probably happened is that in Tehran, those who insisted that something had to be done have won. They have meant that it's worth the risk, that this can escalate. There are certainly those who also welcome this because they see that this war is one that both Israel's military and parts of Iran's military consider inevitable.
Isabell Schierenbeck, professor at the Department of Global Studies at the University of Gothenburg, says that the risk of the war escalating and spreading in different ways is increasing.
Partly, it can become a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. Now, it's going to be very decisive moments and days ahead, and it's a lot about how Israel manages to defend itself against this attack, whether civilians die or not, she says.
It also remains to be seen how the Iran-backed Shia militias in other countries react, for example, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but also in Iraq and Syria.
