It points upwards for Swedish economy, according to a new forecast from Danske Bank's economists.
"Made for an upswing", they write in the report.
Swedish growth will increase to 1.5 percent this year, up from last year's 0.3 percent. And growth in 2025 can be even higher – at 2.0 percent, according to the forecast.
The numbers are in line with the latest forecast from Danske Bank's economists in March.
"The rising unemployment rate should be taken with a grain of salt. The focus should be on employment and worked hours, which show positive recovery", write the bank's economists.
The record number of bankruptcies has so far only had a "mild effect on unemployment", they add.
The Riksbank is expected to lower the interest rate in line with the interest rate curve, that is, twice in the second half of the year to a interest rate of 3.25 percent in December. Under 2025, Danske Bank's economists expect four more cuts to 2.25 percent by the end of the year.
"We see a clear risk that the Riksbank may lower more than announced", they write.
It is mainly industry that is starting to get going, while household consumption is lagging.
"However, this is something that should turn around soon, as interest rate cuts have begun, real wages are rising, and at the same time we see that consumer confidence is rising very quickly".
