President Joe Biden's announcement that he will not run for re-election creates a political earthquake in the USA.
In record time, the Democrats must unite behind a new candidate. Donald Trump's campaign team must come up with a new strategy.
They were so prepared to attack Biden's age and slowness, says political science professor Chris Galdieri.
But if (Vice President) Kamala Harris becomes the presidential candidate, Trump gets a completely different opponent. She is energetic and verbal and can campaign much more than Biden.
Galdieri, who is active at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, calls Sunday's announcement from Joe Biden exceptional, but adds that it was inevitable given the concern within the party. But does the withdrawal lead to increased or decreased chances of winning for the Democrats in the presidential election in November?
The chances of winning increase. This is because the voters' perception of Biden deteriorated drastically after the debate (on June 27). It's not about them not liking him, but about them worrying about whether he can do the job, says Galdieri.
Attracting voters?
However, Joe Biden backing his Vice President Kamala Harris does not automatically mean she becomes the presidential candidate. The candidate is elected by state delegates at the convention in Chicago in August. When Biden throws in the towel, his delegates become unbound, free to vote for whoever they want.
Many will likely follow the president's recommendation, but it's not impossible that, for example, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or California Governor Gavin Newsom join the fray.
Party members will look to profiles like the Obamas and Clintons for guidance, predicts Galdieri.
But Harris is young, a woman, and black. She would attract voters.
Self-examination ahead
The fact that the Democratic Party did not focus harder on finding a successor to Biden and that the 81-year-old got to debate against Republican Donald Trump in June will be subject to self-examination and discussions. Biden's stamina and health were intensely debated already at the turn of the year, but after his strong speech to the nation in March, the criticism subsided. One possibility is that the president took it easy afterwards, says Galdieri.
The sad thing now is that other potential candidates don't get to go through the primary election process and the conversations with voters that it entails. Now everything has to happen in condensed form at the convention.
The big question now is whether the party can unite behind Kamala Harris – or if other strong Democrats challenge her at the party meeting.
She is strong and charismatic. But few voters know exactly what she stands for. And she has been Vice President to a relatively unpopular president, says Galdieri.
The percentage of voters who have a positive view of the following politicians in the USA:
President and Democrat Joe Biden: 39.1
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump: 42.8
Vice President Kamala Harris: 38.1
Republican Speaker Mike Johnson: 26.8
Source: Real Clear Politics compilation of current opinion polls
