The probability of the Swedish Central Bank lowering the interest rate in the interest rate decision on August 20 has increased slightly during the week, according to the pricing on the interest rate market.
It is currently at 84 percent, which can be compared to 80 percent a week earlier, according to the major bank SEB's compilation.
In the Swedish Central Bank's own interest rate forecast from June, the latest so-called interest rate path, the probability of a lowering of the interest rate in August is at 76 percent.
In the interest rate path from June, the Swedish Central Bank expects two to three lowerings of 0.25 percentage points during the second half of 2024, down from today's interest rate of 3.75 percent. Ahead of the June decision, the Swedish Central Bank's board of directors expected to lower the interest rate by 0.50 percentage points during the second half of the year.
The Swedish Central Bank last lowered the interest rate in May, which was the first time in eight years.
The Swedish Central Bank's interest rate – which has been raised to unusually high levels during the inflation and interest rate shock of 2022–2023 – affects, among other things, variable mortgage rates and other interest rates in the Swedish economy.
If mortgage rates follow the interest rate down by 0.75 percentage points, the interest cost for a mortgage loan of three million kronor would decrease by 22,500 kronor per year or 1,875 kronor per month, if one disregards the effects of interest deductions.
