When influential criminals are released from prison, the police prepare for new conflicts - both between different networks and former friends, when those released feel cheated out of their share of the spoils.
It's like a wolf pack where everyone just tears at their share of the prey, says intelligence chief Jale Poljarevius.
Gun violence in Sweden has so far decreased compared to last year. Then, there were 227 shootings between January and July. Halfway through July, there have been 148 shootings this year, according to police statistics.
The decline is also visible in the police region of Mitt. But there is no reason to relax, says Jale Poljarevius, intelligence chief in the region that includes Gävleborg, Västmanland, and Uppsala.
We see tendencies that it's bubbling under the surface now.
In recent times, several influential criminals have been released after serving their sentences, and more will be released in the near future.
One shouldn't have preconceived notions, but analytically, we must count on many not being rehabilitated and will relapse into crime. Now we need to identify who may be heading into these conflicts again.
Not like in mafia movies
When they come out of prison, there is a large area for new conflicts. They may have family members who need to be taken care of, investments that need to be managed, and above all, they want their share of the spoils.
If it had been taken care of by the others, we probably would have had fewer conflicts. But it looks more like in mafia movies than in reality, says Jale Poljarevius and continues:
The trend we instead see is that the active ones often have neglected their companions who were locked up. "The winner takes it all" is what applies, which results in dissatisfaction and can lead to new conflicts and shootings.
It's a damn predatory mentality.
The Encrochat verdicts created a power vacuum
Many of those being released in the near future in region Mitt are those who received medium-length sentences after the encrypted service Encrochat was hacked.
The police are now keeping a close eye on Västerås, where three shootings have occurred since June. The Encrochat verdicts changed the criminal environment in the city.
A larger network had essentially a monopoly on the city's drug market, but when several of them were imprisoned in the Encrochat verdicts, a power vacuum was created.
New actors have emerged who are more numerous and not inculcated in how to divide the market geographically. Moreover, they are younger with poorer impulse control, says Jale Poljarevius.
The newer groups in Västerås are also difficult for the police to map.
We're talking about very loose constellations where loyalty is quickly switched.
