Memes with coconut nuts, smart digital collection initiatives, and closely scrutinized popularity figures, all well and good. But in the USA, the candidate who gets the most votes doesn't always win – in reality, the presidential election is decided in a handful of so-called swing states, where it's a toss-up between Republican and Democratic majorities.
Georgia, it's great to be back, and I'm aware of this: The road to the White House goes through this state.
Democrat Kamala Harris's greeting to the tens of thousands of supporters who gathered in the state capital Atlanta spoke her clear language. Georgia was one of the seven states that decided the presidential election in 2020 and is in focus again this year.
Swinging Opinion?
The seven are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Four years ago, it was less than 3 percentage points between the Democrats' Joe Biden and Republican Trump in these, but Biden won all except the latter.
The reason the focus is on so few states is the USA's over 200-year-old electoral system, according to which voters in each state vote for electors, who then elect the president. How many electors a state has depends on its population, and in most cases, the winner takes all the electors.
This makes the election outcome predictable in many places. California has voted Democratic blue for decades, while most inland states vote Republican red. But on a few places, opinion swings, and it's here that a presidential candidate must put their effort.
Minorities in Focus
Currently, US media often refer to the "rust belt" – the industrial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin (and to some extent Ohio) – which four years ago were Biden's "firewall". This spring, Trump has had a steady lead in these, something that likely contributed to the president throwing in the towel and backing Kamala Harris.
The question is whether the Democrats' strategy changes with her?
Biden often described himself as a working-class guy from Pennsylvania. But lawyer Harris has Indian and Jamaican roots and may have a greater chance in North Carolina and Georgia, which have a large black population. If she can also attract Spanish-speaking Latinos, Nevada and Arizona may be within reach. These four are collectively called the "sun belt", where Trump is currently leading.
There are variants of strategies to reach the 270 electors required for victory, but without a majority of the seven swing states, it's impossible.
Tina Magnergård Bjers/TT
Facts: Opinion Polls Ahead of the US Election
TTTT
Republican Donald Trump currently has the support of 48.7 percent of Americans, and Democrat Kamala Harris has 46.5 percent, according to the political website Real Clear Politics' compilation of current measurements.
The USA's complicated electoral system, however, means that the election is decided in a few swing states. Here's how the candidates' support looks in percentages in these.
The number of electors in each swing state is in parentheses, and to win the presidential election, a candidate needs the support of at least 270 electors.
Pennsylvania (19): Trump: 48.2; Harris: 45.5
Georgia (16): Trump: 48.6; Harris: 44.6
North Carolina (16): Trump: 49; Harris: 43.5
Michigan (15): Harris: 48.3; Trump: 46.3
Arizona (11): Trump: 49; Harris: 44.8
Wisconsin (10): Trump: 48.2; Harris: 48
Nevada (6): Trump: 47.5; Harris: 43.5
The presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.
Source: Real Clear Politics
The US presidential election is decided by electors, representatives whom voters in the 50 states elect when they go to the polls on election day. There are a total of 538 electors, and at least 270 are required to become president.
The candidate who gets the most votes in a state gets all the electoral votes there (except in Maine and Nebraska, where the electors are allocated proportionally). This means that the winner of the election does not necessarily get the most votes overall in the country.
A state has as many electors as it has representatives in Congress (i.e., the number of representatives in the House of Representatives plus the two senators), a number determined by the state's population. Additionally, the capital district DC has three electors.
The largest state is California with 54 electors. The largest among the very even swing states, where the election is realistically decided, is currently Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina, and Georgia (16 each), and Michigan (15). Ohio (17) and Florida (30) have been swing states in several recent elections but are now considered to be voting Republican.
The electoral system is described in the US Constitution from 1789. Its defenders say it guarantees that smaller and sparsely populated states have influence. Critics argue that it is undemocratic because the candidate who gets the most votes does not always win.
Source: Real Clear Politics and Politico
