Far-right or left-wing?
A divided and dissatisfied France chooses its path – with major consequences for all of Europe.
Marine Le Pen and local mayor Steeve Briois smile confidently from election posters in northern French Hénin-Beaumont. This is Le Pen's own constituency, where the far-right has long dominated and she herself was quickly and grandly re-elected for another term in the French parliament.
Voter Nathalie is one of many here who have given her their support, "as always".
It's good here. The mayor has done a lot of good for us, she says about Briois, who has been in local power since 2014.
But in reality, she is voting mostly in protest against President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.
He doesn't keep his promises. He only favors the rich, says Nathalie.
"Their turn"
Sunday's first round of voting was, as expected, a strong success for Le Pen's National Rally (RN). There are many reasons for this.
The 28-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella is eloquent, elegant, and popular. And compared to previous elections, voters nationally no longer seem to be afraid of the far-right.
A lot of it is about trying everything, but never RN. In our surveys, we often hear "Why not? It's their turn", says opinion expert Fréderic Dabi to the Belgian newspaper Le Soir.
RN has also significantly toned down its toughest rhetoric, not least its criticism of the EU and NATO. Perhaps the experiences from Italy have also played a role, where the far-right has been in power under Giorgia Meloni since 2022.
Fateful week
In opinion polls, RN has recently been consistently above 30 percent. What this means in terms of actual seats is still difficult to say. Members of parliament are elected in single-member constituencies, and in most cases, it will take until the decisive second round next Sunday, July 7, before the seat distribution is clear.
Until then, the country is now facing a fateful week. Traditionally, many French voters in similar situations have rallied against the far-right by gathering around RN's opponents, regardless of whether they come from the left or right.
But this time it will be harder. Macron's unpopularity is affecting his candidates, while many from the center and traditional right are skeptical about voting for the new left-wing alliance NFP – especially in cases where it involves candidates from the Left Party LFI.
RN now hopes that this skepticism will lead to a solid majority – and government power.
Members of the French parliament's lower house – the National Assembly – are elected in 577 single-member constituencies across the country and by French citizens abroad. Regardless of how many votes different parties receive in total, it is the winners in each constituency who take their seats in parliament, without any adjustment seats.
If no candidate receives more than 50 percent support in the first round, a decisive second round is held a week later, similar to the presidential election. There, the two most popular candidates face off against each other, as well as additional candidates if anyone has received more than 12.5 percent support, which is unusual.
In the final round, the parliamentary seat is taken by the candidate who receives the most votes, regardless of percentage.
More than 2.6 million people out of France's 49 million eligible voters have registered to vote by proxy, which is an indication of the high voter turnout expected.
