The EU Parliament appears to have a stable middle majority – but perhaps only on paper.
Now, demands and counter-demands are being made in the hunt for continued support for Ursula von der Leyen.
In the latest result forecast from the EU Parliament, the Christian Democratic conservative party group EPP, the liberal RE, and the social democratic S&D together have 400 of the 720 seats in the incoming EU Parliament.
This would provide a good basis for electing EPP's top candidate Ursula von der Leyen for another five years as President of the EU Commission – something that requires at least 361 yes-votes in Parliament.
EPP's Secretary-General Thanasis Bakolas believes it is clear what EU voters want.
Even if the three middle groups have enough mandates on paper, it is not a given that all will support von der Leyen. For example, the French right-wing party LR – with six mandates in EPP – has already said no to the German in the spring. In the Czech Republic, the liberal election winner ANO – with seven mandates in RE – has signalled that they may consider switching to a more EU-sceptic party group.
The vote on the Commission President is secret, which makes it possible for all members to go against their party line without risking consequences.
A vote on von der Leyen can take place as early as mid-July, but can also be postponed until September if the majority situation is unclear.
Intensive negotiations between parties and party groups are now underway.
Despite its strong position, EPP has a difficult balancing act ahead. If they try to expand the middle coalition with green members to secure a majority, there is a risk that several on the right wing will jump off. If they go the other way, they may lose both liberals and social democrats.
Both the latter clearly say no to cooperation with Giorgia Meloni's Italian Brothers in the ECR party group.
This is how large the party groups will be in the EU Parliament in mandates according to the Parliament's latest forecast (compared to the current situation in parentheses):
Christian Democratic conservative EPP: 186 (+10)
Social Democratic S&D: 135 (-4)
Liberal RE: 79 (-23)
EU-sceptic conservative ECR: 73 (+4)
EU-critical far-right ID: 58 (+9)
Environmental party De gröna/EFA: 53 (-18)
Left-wing group GUE/NGL: 36 (-1)
Non-attached: 45 (-17)
Others: 55 (+55)
Voter turnout is reported to be preliminary 50.8 per cent.
Source: EU Parliament
