The battle for the important posts in the next EU Commission is in full swing.
Sweden risks being left behind – and may have to settle for its second-choice candidate.
As early as mid-July, Ursula von der Leyen may be formally approved for another five years as President of the EU Commission.
Already, however, the positions are being filled in what will be her new "government".
Each EU country contributes one person to the EU Commission, where they will then be given a responsibility area after discussions and negotiations with the President.
To get an important job, it's not enough to be skilled. Ideally, you should also come from one of the large EU countries, belong to the "right" party group, and preferably have a strong background as a former minister or even better, a head of government. Being early out is not stupid either.
Heavyweight Balts
One who meets most of the criteria is Valdis Dombrovskis. He comes from "only" small Latvia, but is a former Prime Minister, belongs to the traditionally conservative party family EPP, and has already been nominated by his government.
Dombrovskis will be doing his third period in the Commission and is already sitting on one of the finest posts as one of three executive Vice-Presidents with the highest economic responsibility. He will hardly be demoted in the autumn.
Neighbouring Estonia will also get a heavy role as Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been nominated for the job as Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
Both Man and Woman
Kallas is one of the few who can also be completely sure of her role. To guarantee a gender-balanced Commission, von der Leyen is expected to push hard for all countries to give her two alternatives – a man and a woman – regardless of whether they want to or not.
This could be problematic for countries that have already announced a single name, if it turns out that von der Leyen would rather have their second-choice candidate.
It's likely also a reason why several countries – including Sweden – have not yet said anything publicly. This way, they don't risk having a heavyweight minister suffer the embarrassment of being rejected. Or having to admit that they actually had another candidate as their first choice than the one who is ultimately approved.
In the future EU Commission, German Ursula von der Leyen is expected to continue as Commission President, while Estonia's Kaja Kallas is expected to be nominated as Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
Two current Commissioners are also already nominated for a continuation: Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis and Slovak Maros Sefcovic.
Among other countries, Spain has flagged that it wants its Environment Minister Teresa Ribera to get a heavy climate post in the Commission.
Also, Ireland's Finance Minister Michael McGrath has been nominated, while Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has announced that he will put forward former Education Minister and EU Parliament member Henna Virkkunen.
